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Why we are likely NOT living in a simulation

I typically keep this blog about computer science, but I also dabble in a bit of philosophy. I was initially struck by Bostrom's simulation argument when I first read it years ago. Over the years, I've cycled a few times between disputing what I believed were some of its assumptions, and cautious acceptance after realizing my mistake. The simulation argument in its simplest form is that one of the following must be true: simulations of humans can't be built, or simulations of humans won't be built, or we are almost certainly living in a simulation I think this argument is absolutely valid, so one of those outcomes is true. Claiming #3 is most likely is what's known as the simulation hypothesis , and has such proponents as Elon Musk. Sabine Hossenfelder recently argued against the simulation hypothesis by basically asserting that #1 above is plausible, but I actually think #2 is the most likely case. For reference, Bostrom calls future civilizations capable of r